Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9918 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AS 9918 · GUM → HNL

departs 9:28 AM ChST · arrives 10:35 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9am departures from GUM are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9918 · GUM → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?