AV 259 · SJU → BOG

departs 6:16 PM AT · arrives 8:10 PM -05

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SJU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 259 · SJU → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?