Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 29 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AV 29 · MCO → BOG

departs 3:18 PM ET · arrives 6:23 PM -05

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 29 · MCO → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?