Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1640
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
B6 1640 · SVD → JFK
departs 3:25 PM AST · arrives 8:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sun 11/1 53%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SVD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.