Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
B6 264 · SEA → JFK
departs 10:19 PM PT · arrives 6:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.22 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.