Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
B6 864 · ORD → FLL
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 52%
Fri 10/30 45%
Sat 10/31 53%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.