Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BRITISH AIRWAYS · FLIGHT BA 186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

BA 186 · AUS → LHR

departs 10:36 PM CT · arrives 12:43 PM GMT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LHR?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into LHR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

LHR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 186 · AUS → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?