BA 211 · LHR → TPA

departs 12:56 PM GMT · arrives 6:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from LHR are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 211 · LHR → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?