Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 1452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
C5 1452 · FOE → SDF
departs 10:51 PM CT · arrives 1:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave FOE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
FOE (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.