Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 1519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 1519 · TYS → IAH
departs 12:46 AM ET · arrives 2:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
TYS (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.