Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4226 · LRD → IAH
departs 7:08 AM CT · arrives 8:34 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 6%
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LRD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
LRD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LRD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.