Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4227
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4227 · AVP → IAD
departs 10:29 AM ET · arrives 11:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave AVP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVP
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
AVP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.