C5 4228 · IAH → SGF

departs 6:11 PM CT · arrives 7:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SGF?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SGF (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4228 · IAH → SGF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SGF?