C5 4247 · IAD → GSO

departs 10:16 PM ET · arrives 11:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at IAD that day

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4247 · IAD → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?