Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4255
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4255 · IAD → RIC
departs 6:04 PM ET · arrives 7:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.