Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4266
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4266 · IAD → CHO
departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CHO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at CHO that day
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
CHO (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.