Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4305
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4305 · MFE → IAH
departs 5:16 PM CT · arrives 6:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MFE (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 11,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.