C5 4320 · IAH → JAN

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 9:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAN?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

JAN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4320 · IAH → JAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAN?