Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4322
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4322 · IAH → MFE
departs 2:33 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MFE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,143 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.