Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4323
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
C5 4323 · IAH → MOB
departs 4:50 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MOB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MOB?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MOB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MOB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.