Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4341
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4341 · IAH → MFE
departs 4:35 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at IAH that day
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MFE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.