Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4839
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
C5 4839 · IAH → AMA
departs 8:31 PM CT · arrives 10:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.