Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4866 · ROA → IAD
departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.