Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4874 · ROC → IAD
departs 8:01 PM ET · arrives 9:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.