Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4928
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4928 · MFE → IAH
departs 12:16 PM CT · arrives 1:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MFE (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 11,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.