Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4996 · SGF → IAH
departs 3:06 PM CT · arrives 5:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/31 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
SGF is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.