CM 467 · RDU → PTY

departs 4:14 PM ET · arrives 7:38 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 467 · RDU → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?