CM 847 · PTY → SAN

departs 1:41 PM EST · arrives 6:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 1pm departures from PTY are usually not late

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 847 · PTY → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?