Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
CX 801 · ORD → HKG
departs 4:33 PM CT · arrives 8:42 PM HKT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HKG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HKG?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HKG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.