Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
CX 830 · HKG → JFK
departs 9:06 AM HKT · arrives 12:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
CX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG
Weather at each end
HKG (origin)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.