Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CONDOR · FLIGHT DE 33 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

DE 33 · SEA → FRA

departs 5:48 PM PT · arrives 12:03 PM CET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FRA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.04 in

FRA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DE 33 · SEA → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?