Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1015 · IAD → SEA
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 9:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.