Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1312
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1312 · MCO → RDU
departs 4:04 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.