Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1391 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

DL 1391 · PHL → DTW

departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1391 · PHL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?