Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1511 · MCO → LGA
departs 12:08 PM ET · arrives 2:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 47%
Fri 10/30 52%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.