Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
DL 1644 · DTW → DEN
departs 8:07 PM ET · arrives 9:02 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Today 20%
Sun 11/1 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.