Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1728 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, October 28

DL 1728 · MDW → ATL

took off 5:25 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:10 PM CT → 8:23 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1728 · MDW → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?