Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1823 · LGA → DTW
departs 7:29 AM ET · arrives 9:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 8%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling 11,000 ft
Visibility 8 mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.