Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1829 · SDQ → JFK
departs 2:06 PM AST · arrives 5:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SDQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SDQ that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDQ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.