DL 487 · AUS → TPA

took off 8:43 AM CT · expected to land 11:41 AM ET (scheduled 8:15 AM CT → 11:48 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 487 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?