Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 867 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

DL 867 · LAX → MCO

departs 10:34 AM PT · arrives 6:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 867 · LAX → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?