Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1112
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 1112 · MCO → RDU
departs 1:19 PM ET · arrives 3:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.