Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1601
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
F9 1601 · PHL → LAS
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30 38%
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.