Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 1653 · MCO → SAT
departs 7:04 AM ET · arrives 9:06 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 22%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.