Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 1654 · SAT → MCO
departs 9:54 AM CT · arrives 1:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 19%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9am departures from SAT are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.