Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 2309 · BWI → MCO
departs 7:06 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.