Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2440
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
F9 2440 · DEN → RDU
departs 12:15 PM MT · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 16%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.