Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
F9 2445 · ORD → LAX
departs 8:03 PM CT · arrives 10:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.