Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 2530 · DTW → MCO
departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 39%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±8 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.