Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 2538 · TPA → PHL
departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.